🔗 Share this article

"I will be positioned in this office by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer stated, adding that if the discussion proceeded smoothly, he might welcome us into his official residence for another talk next year.

For a PM, there's never any downtime for leaders. Just an hour before we sat down, Sir Keir had been in calls with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and working to understand precisely had transpired in Venezuela, where his big political chum, US President Donald Trump, had recently targeted and seized its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

By the time the discussion, which was considerably lengthier than normal, had ended, Maduro had been charged in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

With the new year begins, Sir Keir seems to have had a degree of a revitalisation. Perhaps even just a little downtime with his family at Chequers, the prime minister's country retreat.

This seemed to have resulted in a more positive mood than at the sluggish end of 2025, a awful annus horribilis for him.

Yet, are he and his colleagues kidding themselves if they think his fortunes are poised to turn around?

Leadership Questions

The harsh truth for the PM is that many of his party members believe he's ineffective at his job. A faction of them would rather take a risk and get him out in 2026.

But Sir Keir was having none of it when we spoke on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he told me he'd be "evaluated at the poll", insisting no one would strip his electoral mandate from him – even if the most effective strategy of stopping Nigel Farage and Reform UK getting to No 10 could be for Labour to replace its leader.

"This is the battle of our lifetime and I aim to lead us," he affirmed.

Upcoming Local Votes

The issue for the PM is that he will be assessed long before then – in a major set of elections in May across the UK. He attempted to argue, maybe excessively, that they are concerning who runs councils, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not a verdict on Westminster.

Accurate – to some extent. But although he may not want to acknowledge it, No 10 will be evaluated by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir suggesting that there were no scenario under which he would resign, should one of his MPs challenged him for the job, should those elections prove very poor for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He sought to explain his low poll ratings by saying the electorate was reasonably eager for things to change. He aimed to assure me, and the public, that the coming months would be distinct.

The economy would strengthen in the face of rising unemployment, he claimed, when plans the administration implemented during their first turbulent year began to take effect.

• He pledged to close asylum hotels ahead of the current target date of 2029, but he did not set a new date on that.
• He noted too, with the caveat that it wasn't a done deal, that a peace agreement in Ukraine felt more likely now than at any time since Russia's major invasion.
• He revealed for the first time that Western allies were now discussing how to combine US and European forces to offer security for Ukraine – to safeguard a possible peace.

His core point is that this year the country will "see an improvement".

Political Challenges

The PM may have spoken with renewed vitality than observed from him for a some time – calmer, perhaps, with more time to talk.

However, in spite of encountering calls from many directions for a more decisive approach, with greater political clarity, more urgency, more speed and more urgency, his points were well-known ones.

Given that he is in this much political trouble, is a different approach required a change of tack?

No government, and certainly not one that has been struggling in the polls for an extended period, gets everything its as desired.

Sir Keir's challenges are not just because government is hard, but because he and his colleagues have made mistakes, even in the last few weeks.

Regrets and Risks

The PM admitted that he was sorry for saying he was "delighted" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an outcry when statements he'd previously made – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – came to light.

Sir Keir attributed it to "the system" for not realising what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is courting evident political risks as the year gets going. His alliance with the US president acquires a new complication after Trump's strikes on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over many years, the idea he would be at ease with this kind of intervention seems implausible.

International Law and Brexit

He asserted he was a "longtime advocate of international law" but the public "simply lack the complete details at the moment".

Critics demanded criticise the action before we spoke. And the administration is likely to face more pressure to give an definitive view in Parliament in the next few days.

And there has consistently been simmering desire in the Labour party to reverse or renegotiate some of the outcomes of Brexit.

Sir Keir denies he's doing that, but his new specific plan to move closer with the single market – the vast economic European trading zone – will probably provoke protests that he is reneging on his promise never to try to reverse the decisions that flowed from Brexit.

A commitment to integrate into more of the single market will please many on his own side, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to