Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.
Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Several figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several sources also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
