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Only 48 hours prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a significant forecast – not just the winner overall, and block by block. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, has spent over a decade in progressive politics and emerged as a kind of well-known figure recently for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and polling.

He published his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate was victorious while failed to predict the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, stretching from one neighborhood to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters favored the independent, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

How was your election night?

It was necessary since they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the tally frequently! I felt a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani led the early vote by 12 points, but came large groups of ballots added after that and the advantage went from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, there was a world in which yesterday turned out somewhat badly for him, where Cuomo was going to end up basically doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. However the winner added half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?

He assembled the alliance that the left long aimed for: it’s multiracial, it’s young, it’s renters and individuals facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the earlier election. Additionally he boosted his core of liberal progressives, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: multiracial, young, renters and people squeezed by affordability

There were also a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Muslims. Voters in immigrant strongholds that supported Trump previously backed Zohran now. However it’s not that he was gaining white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the night was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Turnout was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought it could go over 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that sufficed to win.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Right now you would say he’s favored to surpass half. He has just over 50% but remain around 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. Thus it’s not it’s definitive, but I think probable, and I wish he does so afterwards none can claim Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His vote plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any borough. Not even Tottenville in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump area. That really was unexpected. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many Republicans on the island with a strong turnout. I believe there was a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it before the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned left-wing base – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those parts of the boroughs?

I think existed a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the property owners and residents all went for the independent. So there was a little resistance. However no, mostly the commie corridor is a key factor why Zohran won – he was polling between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote there was coverage on if the candidate was gaining ground with the community. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance definitely mattered in those places. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were pretty staunchly supportive. So I don’t know if there were crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the another locale with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from the left hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be more of that – people will come from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

However I think that each urban center in the US can have their own commie corridor. Urban places are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where individuals struggle by the disparities exist.