UK Diplomats Advised Regarding Military Action to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released papers reveal that the Foreign Office advised against British military intervention to remove the former Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "serious option".

Policy Papers Reveal Considerations on Addressing a "Depressingly Healthy" Leader

Policy papers from the then Prime Minister's government show officials considered options on how best to handle the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who refused to step down as the country descended into turmoil and financial collapse.

Following Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Policy of Isolation Considered Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and forging an international agreement for change was not working, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Courses considered in the documents included:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach supported by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from conflicts abroad that changing a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military involvement would cause heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a severe human and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, significant exodus of refugees, and regional instability – we assess that no African state would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The document continues: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Recommended

The Prime Minister's advisor, Laurie Lee, warned him that Zimbabwe "could become a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, noting: "We must devise a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then afterwards, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had recommended critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has said and done".

Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a military coalition to depose Mugabe were strongly denied by the ex-British leader.